Myanmar Earthquake Impacts Supply Expectations, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Jumps Initially and Then Pulls Back [SMM Tin Futures Review]

March 31, 2025 Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) jumped initially and then pulled back today, opening at 288,000 yuan/mt. Affected by supply disruptions caused by the earthquake in Myanmar and macro policy uncertainties, it surged to 289,500 yuan/mt in the morning session. However, it later pulled back due to a stronger US dollar and high inventory pressure, eventually closing at 282,350 yuan/mt, up 0.41% from the previous settlement price. The intraday trading range was 284,800-289,500 yuan/mt, with a turnover of 76.019 billion yuan. Open interest decreased by 51 lots to 39,900 lots, and market sentiment remained cautious.

US Fed Policy Disturbance: Although the US Fed maintained expectations for an interest rate cut within the year, the Chicago Fed President stated that "the stickiness of inflation still needs to be observed." The US dollar index rebounded to 104.1, suppressing the valuation of non-ferrous metals.

Domestic Policy Countermeasures: The Ministry of Finance expanded the "trade-in" policy to cover the smart home sector, and demand for solder in new energy vehicles is expected to improve marginally. However, risks of capital idling remain after the central bank's MLF operation, and the market is skeptical about the actual implementation effects of the policies.

Myanmar Earthquake Impacts Supply Expectations: A 7.9-magnitude earthquake (the largest globally this year) occurred in Myanmar on March 28, potentially delaying the resumption of production at the Manxiang mining area in Wa State. The tight raw material supply situation is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Continued Suspension of Mining Operations in the DRC: The Bisie mine (with an annual capacity of 20,000 mt), controlled by the M23 armed group, has no hope of resuming production. China's 40% dependence on tin ore imports exacerbates the risk of raw material shortages. The TC for tin concentrates remains at a low level of 11,000 yuan/mt, increasing production pressure on smelters.